Friday, September 22, 2017

Learn from the Past !!

One of the hot topics in Indian defence arena today is how much country needs, how much is enough in terms of defence preparedness. This discussion gets even more shrilling if submarines and aircraft carriers are a part of it.

Well, the first and very basic question that one should be asking is what is the core of our defence strategy; are we an expansionist regime that is looking to expand its frontiers by force? If the answer of this question is "No", then it becomes quite clear that core of our defence strategy is "defence against aggression". 

Now, if our strategy is "defence against aggression", then the next question is do we need to invest in offensive weapon systems? Before, we answer that question, we need to first classify as what are these different types of weapon systems?

Weapon systems could be broadly classified as -

  • Defensive Weapon Systems - e.g. Missile Defence Shield
  • Offensive Weapon Systems - e.g. Ballistic and Cruise Missiles like Agni
  • Deterrent Weapon Systems - e.g. SSBN (Submersible Ship Ballistic Nuclear) like Arihant Class Submarine  

Now coming back to our question - Do we need offensive weapons if our defence strategy is "defence against aggression"? Answer is "yes", because in today's asymmetric threat scenario, we need a to mitigate the threats from 360 degree perspective. Consider a situation, where we could neutralize a confirmed threat with a preemptive action, to be able to do that we will need an offensive weapon platform e.g. an Air Superiority Strike Aircraft like Sukhoi 30 MKI.

Now, to go back to the title of this post, "Learn from the Past", as of today we have two nations that threatens our peace, one each on western and eastern frontiers. So, should we blindly engage in an arms race to reach 1:1 parity in terms of weapon systems? Before we do that, it might be wise to turn few pages of history, go back in time and see what happened to the mighty USSR.

Now this begs a question, if not 1:1 parity in terms of weapon systems then what? e.g. if China has 1000 main battle tanks, should we also have 1000 main battle tanks and if not 1000 then the important question is "how many"?

This "how many" is the key. "How many" do we need to secure our frontiers? We do not need a 1:1 parity, all we need is "enough" to secure our frontiers, because we are not an "expansionist regime" that is looking to expand its frontiers by force. Our defence strategy is build on the pivot - "defence against aggression", hence instead of matching 72 submarines of China, we might need just 30 submarines. 

We might need only 4 aircraft carries, one each to patrol Arabian Sea, Indian Ocean, and Bay of Bengal; while the forth aircraft carrier is undergoing refit and upgrades. 

We may need just 4 SSBNs - First one on active patrol, second one returning to base, third one moving out of base to resume active patrol, and forth one undergoing refit and upgrades.

So instead of getting sucked into arms race and trying to achieve 1:1 parity with China, all we need is "enough" to defend our frontiers. All you need is a "wall of concrete" to hold waters of largest of dams.

We need to support INS Vikramaditya, and INS Vikrant with two more aircraft carriers. We need to support INS Arihant and INS Aridhaman with two more SSBNs and likewise for other weapon systems. 

That's what India needs to do !!